Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

15134 23 80854 2 223902 document 80854 s41467-018-02985-8.pdf application/pdf 72dfb21a21f877ecf8364fcf5682d051 MD5 1275328 2018-02-21 17:30:58 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/1/s41467-018-02985-8.pdf 15134 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

s41467-018-02985-8.pdf

published 80855 2 223905 document 80855 41467_2018_2985_MOESM1_ESM.pdf application/pdf 2c52682fc4ef953c960b28c629f81980 MD5 1121811 2018-02-21 17:31:27 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/2/41467_2018_2985_MOESM1_ESM.pdf 15134 2 2 application/pdf text en public cc_by

41467_2018_2985_MOESM1_ESM.pdf

supplemental 80856 2 223908 document 80856 lightbox.jpg image/png 6d4943b8c26e0a87b53cfe537a90e64c MD5 2012 2018-02-21 17:31:57 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/3/lightbox.jpg 15134 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 80857 2 223909 document 80857 preview.jpg image/png ba4231bca0172eb6a2d3584e60f5bccb MD5 1372 2018-02-21 17:31:57 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/4/preview.jpg 15134 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

preview.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 80858 2 223910 document 80858 medium.jpg image/png f7ed49e7cfc48004534a793315bce4ff MD5 2935 2018-02-21 17:31:58 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/5/medium.jpg 15134 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

medium.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 80859 2 223911 document 80859 small.jpg image/png 2deae57b3eaf58105e22b3bdcaa72fe2 MD5 761 2018-02-21 17:31:58 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/6/small.jpg 15134 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 80860 1 223912 document 80860 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 841edc37a74d598740f41df3a05c4a63 MD5 11607 2018-02-21 17:32:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/7/indexcodes.txt 15134 7 7 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 80861 1 223913 document 80861 indexcodes.txt text/plain cf611bc51aa117a276bb52a554241e4a MD5 534 2018-02-21 17:32:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/8/indexcodes.txt 15134 8 8 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80855 80862 2 223914 document 80862 41467_2018_2985_MOESM2_ESM.pdf application/pdf 75bced180f7e81a9f3ca74144c452df1 MD5 680730 2018-02-21 17:32:33 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/9/41467_2018_2985_MOESM2_ESM.pdf 15134 9 9 application/pdf text en public cc_by

41467_2018_2985_MOESM2_ESM.pdf

supplemental 80863 2 223917 document 80863 41467_2018_2985_MOESM3_ESM.docx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document 5ff33b92a4a805d5ae84da13484d7ffe MD5 14033 2018-02-21 17:32:58 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/10/41467_2018_2985_MOESM3_ESM.docx 15134 10 10 application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document text en public cc_by

41467_2018_2985_MOESM3_ESM.docx

supplemental 80864 1 223925 document 80864 indexcodes.txt text/plain 3f605d8d32d206ca6a2c9398af0c2fb5 MD5 12330 2018-02-21 17:36:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/11/indexcodes.txt 15134 11 11 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80863 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80863 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80863 80866 2 223929 document 80866 lightbox.jpg image/png f32871478bbc0fc0e86b6d1f2eb7abdf MD5 36244 2018-02-21 17:41:17 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/13/lightbox.jpg 15134 13 13 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 80867 2 223930 document 80867 preview.jpg image/png 43005c5d14502ae75a19632cc066058a MD5 14131 2018-02-21 17:41:18 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/14/preview.jpg 15134 14 14 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

preview.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 80868 2 223931 document 80868 medium.jpg image/png 8a841fd221e411c3376734f4c8092f3c MD5 4505 2018-02-21 17:41:18 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/15/medium.jpg 15134 15 15 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

medium.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 80869 2 223932 document 80869 small.jpg image/png b17b060c821496ae9cf56b0b96c710b1 MD5 1443 2018-02-21 17:41:19 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/16/small.jpg 15134 16 16 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80854 80870 2 223933 document 80870 lightbox.jpg image/png 44926c9b7067a848380efcc80b0b62e8 MD5 50350 2018-02-21 17:43:02 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/17/lightbox.jpg 15134 17 17 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80862 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80862 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80862 archive 2 disk0/00/01/51/34 2018-02-21 17:34:02 2022-01-26 10:55:27 2018-02-21 17:34:02 article show Mengel M. Nauels A. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Schleussner C.F. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action pub prog_ene Climate-change impacts, Cryospheric science, Projection and prediction Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. 2018-02-20 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 254 public Nature Communications 9 1 TRUE 2041-1723 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02985-8#Sec21 data Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147) Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642147/EU//CD-LINKS;info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641816/EU//CRESCENDO info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess