Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

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Supplementary Material - ScenarioMIP Proposal.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86679 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86679 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86679 archive 353 disk0/00/01/51/53 2018-03-06 06:56:03 2022-01-26 10:56:06 2018-03-06 06:56:03 article show Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Popp A. Calvin K.V. Luderer G. Emmerling J. Gernaat D. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Strefler J. Hasegawa T. 8463 Marangoni G. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Kriegler E. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 van Vuuren D.P. Doelman J. Drouet L. Edmonds J. Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Harmsen M. Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Humpenöder F. Stehfest E. Tavoni M. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C pub prog_ene prog_esm Climate-change mitigation, Energy and society, Energy modelling, Socioeconomic scenarios The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale lowcarbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios. 2018-03-05 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3 254 2881 1314 166 250 97 119 public Nature Climate Change 8 4 325-332 TRUE 1758-678X Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147) Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816) Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies (ADVANCE, FP7 308329) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642147/EU//CD-LINKS;info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641816/EU//CRESCENDO; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308329/EU//ADVANCE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess