Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83642 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83642 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83642 archive 353 disk0/00/01/51/91 2018-04-10 06:25:22 2021-08-27 17:30:06 2018-04-10 06:25:22 article show Seneviratne .I. Wartenburger R. Guillod B.P. Hirsch A.L. Vogel Martha M. Brovkin V. van Vuuren D.P. Schaller N. Boysen L. Calvin K.V. Doelman J. Greve P. 2142 Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Humpenöder F. Krisztin T. 2088 0000-0002-9241-8628 Mitchell D. Popp Al. Riahi K. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Schleussner C.-F. Sillmann J. Stehfest E. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C pub prog_ene prog_esm prog_wat climate extremes, 1.5°C scenarios, land-use changes, regional climate change, climate projections, land–climate interactions This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. 2018-05-13 published The Royal Society Publishing 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450 2897 119 167 254 public Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376 2119 e20160450 TRUE 1364-503X Land-Climate Interactions: Constraints for Droughts and Heatwaves in a Changing Climate (DROUGHT-HEAT, FP7 617518) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/617518/Land-Climate Interactions: Constraints for Droughts and Heatwaves in a Changing Climate/DROUGHT-HEAT info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess