Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

15222 14 83766 2 235398 document 83766 Schleussner+et+al_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_aab63b.pdf application/pdf dc255bfdc19d9d0f621a89943ce8b10c MD5 2233487 2018-04-13 12:37:05 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15222/2/Schleussner%2Bet%2Bal_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_aab63b.pdf 15222 2 2 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Schleussner+et+al_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_aab63b.pdf

accepted 83767 1 235406 document 83767 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ bded9b08370b39ac657118cc5aca4dae MD5 11380 2018-04-13 12:41:04 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15222/3/indexcodes.txt 15222 3 3 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83766 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83766 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83766 archive 5 disk0/00/01/52/22 2018-04-13 12:38:32 2021-08-27 17:30:13 2018-04-13 12:38:32 article show Schleussner C.-F. Deryng D. Müller C. Elliott J. Saeed F. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Liu W. Wang X. Pugh T. Thiery W. Seneviratne S.I. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty pub prog_ene Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5°C and 2°C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially much stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5°C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity. 2018-05-24 published IOP Publishing 10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b 92 254 public Environmental Research Letters 13 e064007 TRUE 1748-9326 Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation (LUC4C, FP7 603542) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603542/EU//LUC4C info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess