Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84040 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84040 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84040 archive 353 disk0/00/01/52/35 2018-04-19 08:18:11 2025-03-12 05:00:14 2018-04-19 08:18:11 article show 1 Byers E. 2115 0000-0003-0349-5742 Gidden M. Leclere D. 2000 0000-0002-8658-1509 Burek P. 2091 0000-0001-6390-8487 Ebi K.L. Greve P. 2142 Grey D. Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Hillers A. Johnson N. 1970 Kahil T. 2103 0000-0002-7812-5271 Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Langan S. 2125 0000-0003-0742-3658 Nakicenovic N. Novak R. Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Pachauri S. 1816 0000-0001-8138-3178 Palazzo A. 1994 0000-0001-8167-9403 Parkinson S. 2028 0000-0002-4753-5198 Rao N. 1961 0000-0003-1888-5292 Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Satoh Y. 2080 Wada Y. 8940 0000-0003-4770-2539 Willaarts B. 2156 0000-0001-6589-1543 Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots pub prog_ene prog_esm prog_wat hotspots; climate change impacts; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; vulnerability; Sustainable Development Goals; 1.5°C Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature(GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those "vulnerable to poverty" from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)(income <$10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks s approximately doubles between 1.5°C and 2.0°C GMT change, doubles again with 3.0°C GMT change and is ~6x between the best and worst cases(SSP1/1.5°C vs SSP3/3.0°C, 0.8-4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8-32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development(SSP1). Whilst 85-95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91-98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7-17% at 1.5°C, doubling to 14-30% at 2°C and again to 27-51% at 3°C. Finally, beyond 2.0°C and at higher risk thresholds, the world's poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases(SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable. 2018-04-19 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45 2585 174 46 2897 119 137 142 166 2691 219 222 223 225 243 254 250 268 2601 2921 public Environmental Research Letters 13 e055012 TRUE 1748-9326 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article