Time to get ready: Conceptualizing the temporal and spatial dynamics of formative phases for energy technologies

15262 11 83973 3 236107 document 83973 Accepted manuscript.pdf application/pdf f165df01ee4bf71b6e553613dbe2d066 MD5 1510731 2018-05-09 06:10:09 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15262/1/Accepted%20manuscript.pdf 15262 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

Accepted manuscript.pdf

accepted 83974 2 236110 document 83974 lightbox.jpg image/png 816f4f0ea6fe3c03b34c520b54654ce0 MD5 38008 2018-05-09 06:20:13 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15262/2/lightbox.jpg 15262 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83973 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83973 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/83973 archive 353 disk0/00/01/52/62 2018-05-08 06:44:47 2021-08-27 17:30:20 2018-05-08 06:44:47 article show Bento N. Wilson C. 8428 0000-0001-8164-3566 Anadon L.D. Time to get ready: Conceptualizing the temporal and spatial dynamics of formative phases for energy technologies pub prog_tnt Energy technology; Innovation system; Formative phase; Space; Hazard model Implementing the Paris agreement to prevent dangerous climate change requires energy system transformation and rapid diffusion of low-carbon innovations. In this paper we investigate both the temporal and spatial dynamics of formative phases by which energy technologies prepare for growth. Drawing on a review of diverse literatures, we offer a definition of the formative phase which clarifies its scope and duration, and identifies its main technological and economic determinants. We use parametric hazard models to assess the relative strengths of these determinants on formative phase durations for a sample of 15 energy technologies diffusing over time in their respective initial markets. We find that substitutability has stronger effects in accelerating the end of formative phases than installed capacity and prices. We extend our analysis using nonparametric models to analyze the spatial diffusion of formative phase durations from initial to follower markets. We find that formative phase durations are long outside initial markets as well, showing only signs of acceleration in latecomer regions. Our results imply risks for policies trying to accelerate the diffusion of large innovations without ready markets in both initial and follower markets. 2018-08 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.015 333 public Energy Policy 119 282-293 TRUE 0301-4215 Innovation pathways, strategies and policies for the Low-Carbon Transition in Europe (INNOPATHS, H2020 730403) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/730403/EU//INNOPATHS info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess