236181document84009DOI_10.1533_ESS-PrognosticUncertainty_11may18.pdfapplication/pdfdc23a091ce86abcdfb08d06991d63c30MD535499602018-05-15 05:59:01https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15264/1/DOI_10.1533_ESS-PrognosticUncertainty_11may18.pdf