Modeling Global Trade in Phosphate Rock within a Partial Equilibrium Framework

15266 9 84022 2 236208 document 84022 sustainability-10-01550.pdf application/pdf 3716a60ab8775db3c2c177f8b6ac68fc MD5 412741 2018-05-15 08:33:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15266/1/sustainability-10-01550.pdf 15266 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

sustainability-10-01550.pdf

published 84023 1 236215 document 84023 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 1bb5ad7e7829e29f087f5d253861b9bd MD5 9922 2018-05-15 08:41:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15266/2/indexcodes.txt 15266 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84022 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84022 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84022 archive 353 disk0/00/01/52/66 2018-05-15 08:35:15 2021-08-27 17:30:20 2018-05-15 08:35:15 article show Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Modeling Global Trade in Phosphate Rock within a Partial Equilibrium Framework pub prog_esm phosphate rock; international trade; partial equilibrium Against the background of combined population and consumption growth, the global sustainable development agenda foresees limits to the expansion of agricultural land. The application of fertilizer is necessary to replenish soil nutrients and keep crop yields high. Phosphate rock (PR) is the main raw material for the production of commercial phosphorus fertilizers. The international PR market is highly concentrated in terms of reserves and supply: a few countries export the major share of all PR traded globally. As many countries are highly dependent on phosphorus import, the modeling of international PR trade and thus exploration of what-if scenarios is of great interest. For modeling purposes, we employ the partial equilibrium framework. The model is driven by a subset of the United Nations (UN) Comtrade database at a yearly time step spanning the period 1997–2016. The only inputs to the model are slope coefficients of demand–supply curves. The transportation costs are internalized by creating a costs ensemble on the basis of historical data. While reasonably sensitive to its inputs, the model fits very well to reported global annual traded quantities and prices and considerably improves per-trade-partner quantity estimates as compared to simple period-averaging approaches. This is the first application of a partial equilibrium approach to global PR market modeling, including validation. 2018-05-14 published Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 10.3390/su10051550 151 219 public Sustainability 10 5 1550 TRUE 2071-1050 Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society (IMBALANCE-P, FP7 610028) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/610028/EU//IMBALANCE-P info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess