The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86678 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86678 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86678 archive 353 disk0/00/01/53/16 2018-06-05 17:00:39 2021-08-27 17:30:26 2018-06-05 17:00:39 article show Seneviratne S.I. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Séférian R. Wartenburger R. Allen M.R. Cain M. Millar R.J. Ebi K.L. Ellis N. Hoegh-Guldberg O. Payne A.J. Schleussner C.-F. Tschakert P. Warren R.F. The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming pub prog_ene The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time.Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales,owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades. 2018-06 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4 254 public Nature 558 7708 41-49 TRUE 0028-0836 Land-Climate Interactions: Constraints for Droughts and Heatwaves in a Changing Climate (DROUGHT-HEAT, FP7 617518) Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/617518/Land-Climate Interactions: Constraints for Droughts and Heatwaves in a Changing Climate/DROUGHT-HEAT; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641816/EU//CRESCENDO info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess