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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84433 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84433 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84433 archive 353 disk0/00/01/53/27 2018-06-12 06:01:40 2021-08-27 17:30:27 2018-06-12 06:01:40 article show Budolfson M. Dennig F. Fleurbaey M. Scovronick N. Siebert A. Spears D. Wagner F. 1789 0000-0003-3429-2374 pub prog_air climate change, climate policy, carbon tax, total factor productivity, population growth How much should the present generations sacrifice to reduce emissions today, in order to reduce the future harms of climate change? Within climate economics, debate on this question has been focused on so-called “ethical parameters” of social time preference and inequality aversion. We show that optimal climate policy similarly importantly depends on the future of the developing world. In particular, although global poverty is falling and the economic lives of the poor are improving worldwide, leading models of climate economics may be too optimistic about two central predictions: future population growth in poor countries, and future convergence in total factor productivity (TFP). We report results of small modifications to a standard model: under plausible scenarios for high future population growth (especially in sub-Saharan Africa) and for low future TFP convergence, we find that optimal near-term carbon taxes could be substantially larger. 2019-02-08 published Oxford Academic 10.1093/wber/lhx016 321 public The World Bank Economic Review 33 1 21-40 TRUE 0258-6770 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article