Socioeconomic factors and future challenges of the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C

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accepted 84536 2 237521 document 84536 lightbox.jpg image/png cea78fd096ba112c1cd44a51ab0ab7ef MD5 34644 2018-06-26 06:26:59 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15341/2/lightbox.jpg 15341 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84535 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84535 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/84535 archive 353 disk0/00/01/53/41 2018-06-21 06:32:36 2021-08-27 17:30:29 2018-06-21 06:32:36 article show Liu J.-Y. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Takahashi K. Hasegawa T. Su X. Masui T. Socioeconomic factors and future challenges of the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C pub prog_ene Socioeconomic factors, 1.5 °C goal, Paris Agreement, SSPs, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model The Paris Agreement has confirmed that the ultimate climate policy goal is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. Moving the goal from 2 °C to 1.5 °C calls for much more concerted effort, and presents greater challenges and costs. This study uses an Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) to evaluate the role of socioeconomic factors (e.g. technological cost and energy demand assumptions) in changing mitigation costs and achieving the 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals, and to identify the channels through which socioeconomic factors affect mitigation costs. Four families of socioeconomic factors were examined, namely low-carbon energy-supply technologies, end-use energy-efficiency improvements, lifestyle changes and biomass-technology promotion (technology cost reduction and social acceptance promotion). The results show that technological improvement in low-carbon energy-supply technologies is the most important factor in reducing mitigation costs. Moreover, under the constraints of the 1.5 °C goal, the relative effectiveness of other socioeconomic factors, such as energy efficiency improvement, lifestyle changes and biomass-related technology promotion, becomes more important in decreasing mitigation cost in the 1.5 °C scenarios than in the 2 °C scenarios. 2018-06-11 published Taylor & Francis 10.1080/17583004.2018.1477374 2881 public Carbon Management 9 5 447-457 TRUE 1758-3012 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article