Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

15389 23 86756 3 246435 document 86756 Manuscript_final_rev2.pdf application/pdf 443a9a58541ce53f946ea140aad9a6cc MD5 578415 2019-02-27 14:24:48 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15389/1/Manuscript_final_rev2.pdf 15389 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

Manuscript_final_rev2.pdf

accepted 86757 2 246438 document 86757 lightbox.jpg image/png 58d3ba73a5a6da0b6c9f8ed9795ea664 MD5 48230 2019-02-27 14:35:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15389/2/lightbox.jpg 15389 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86756 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86756 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86756 archive 2 disk0/00/01/53/89 2018-07-30 15:06:16 2021-08-27 17:30:35 2018-07-30 15:06:16 article show Hasegawa T. 8463 Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Havlík P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Valin H. 1923 0000-0002-0618-773X Bodirsky B.L. Doelman J.C. Fellmann T. Kyle P. Koopman J.F.L. Lotze-Campen H. Mason-D’Croz D. Ochi Y. Pérez Domínguez I. Stehfest E. Sulser T.B. Tabeau A. Takahashi K. Takakura J. van Meijl H. van Zeist W.-J. Wiebe K. Witzke P. Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy pub prog_ene prog_esm Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute. 2018-07-30 10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x 1314 2881 119 316 public Nature Climate Change 8 8 699-703 TRUE 1758-678X https://datam.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datam/public/pages/index.xhtml data Environment Research and Technology Development Fund 2-1702 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan EU H2020 under grant agreement no. 633692 (SUSFANS project) EU H2020 under grant agreement no. 689150 (SIM4NEXUS project) Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (AGCLIM50 Project) Metrics, Models and Foresight for European Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (SUSFANS, H2020 633692) Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the NEXUS of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource-efficient Europe (SIM4NEXUS, H2020 689150) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/ 633692/EU//SUSFANS; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/689150/EU//SIM4NEXUS info:eu-repo/semantics/article