Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

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updated 90537 2 262078 document 90537 lightbox.jpg image/png 10cb3bef264e145c5be2f0b0644bdcc7 MD5 11738 2020-06-15 05:55:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15400/8/lightbox.jpg 15400 8 8 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90536 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90536 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90536 archive 353 disk0/00/01/54/00 2018-08-03 06:14:30 2021-08-27 17:30:37 2018-08-03 06:14:30 article show Pfleiderer P. Schleussner C.-F. Mengel M. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks pub prog_ene International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2??C for a warming of 1.5??C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities. 2018-06-01 Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/aac319 254 public Environmental Research Letters 13 6 e064015 TRUE 1748-9326 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article