Validation of uncertainty-oriented environmental models: A review of the existing approaches

15447 14 85072 2 238891 document 85072 Eker_EGU_2018.pdf application/pdf a9a727be5bf44c310618c172daf81cc8 MD5 2062983 2018-09-07 11:41:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15447/1/Eker_EGU_2018.pdf 15447 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

Eker_EGU_2018.pdf

published 85073 2 238899 document 85073 lightbox.jpg image/png dfbabc389ccb7df0ac35d287f875ee42 MD5 49850 2018-09-07 11:51:15 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15447/2/lightbox.jpg 15447 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85072 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85072 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85072 archive 353 disk0/00/01/54/47 2018-09-07 11:44:40 2021-08-27 17:30:42 2018-09-07 11:44:40 conference_item show 2 Eker S. 2173 0000-0003-2264-132X Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Langan S. 2125 0000-0003-0742-3658 Validation of uncertainty-oriented environmental models: A review of the existing approaches pub prog_asa prog_esm prog_wat Environmental modelling is a commonly used tool to assist the policy dimension of sustainability problems. Model evaluation is an important process in such decision-making contexts to ensure credibility, and it is often considered a purpose-dependent activity. Models are increasingly used for the purpose of scenario generation to deal with non-probabilistic uncertainties. This change in the model purpose implies a change in the evaluation process, and may require different validation techniques. In this paper, we investigate the existing validation viewpoints and approaches, and compare the general modeling context to the scenario generation purpose in particular. We employ three methods for this investigation: (i) A literature review about validation in environmental modeling, (ii) a text-mining analysis on a large dataset of validation-related publications, and (iii) an online survey conducted among model developers and users in academia, governmental and non-governmental policy organizations, and industry. The results indicate a data-orientation for systematic validation, and that conventional validation approaches are adopted even for models used for the purpose of scenario exploration. Future studies can develop a validation framework for models used specifically for generating scenarios and decision-making under non-probabilistic uncertainty. 2018-04 published 2953 260 219 2691 public paper European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 Vienna, Austria 9-13 April 2018 conference FALSE FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject