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2016_ws_v21.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85096 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85096 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85096 archive 353 disk0/00/01/54/52 2018-09-14 15:31:14 2021-08-27 17:30:43 2018-09-14 15:31:14 article show Greve P. 2142 Kahil T. 2103 0000-0002-7812-5271 Mochizuki J. 2027 0000-0003-1000-4251 Schinko T. 8847 0000-0003-1156-7574 Satoh Y. 2080 Burek P. 2091 0000-0001-6390-8487 Fischer G. 276 Tramberend S. 1614 0000-0002-7024-1075 Burtscher R. 2146 0000-0002-4602-0686 Langan S. 2125 0000-0003-0742-3658 Wada Y. 8940 0000-0003-4770-2539 pub prog_risk prog_wat Water scarcity, a critical environmental issue worldwide, has primarily been driven by a significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate and societal changes are projected to further exacerbate water scarcity in many regions worldwide. Today, a major issue for the ongoing policy debate is to identify interventions able to address water scarcity challenges in the presence of large uncertainties. Here, we take a probabilistic approach to assess global water scarcity projections following feasible combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the first half of the 21st century. We identify – alongside trends in median water scarcity - changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions. Our results show that median water scarcity and the associated range of uncertainty are generally on the increase worldwide, including many major river basins. Based on these results, we develop a general decision-making framework to enhance policymaking by identifying four representative clusters of specific water-policy challenges and needs. 2018-09-14 published 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9 2897 142 209 272 268 46 89 312 2907 2691 2601 public Nature Sustainability 1 486-494 TRUE 2398-9629 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article