240435document85528JBB_Full text_2018-08-23_with figures_reviewed.pdfapplication/pdf10cf587e50721e37e8ffed7c3b85f4f4MD521408212018-10-29 09:31:04https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15528/1/JBB_Full%20text_2018-08-23_with%20figures_reviewed.pdf