Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

15634 10 85974 4 243803 document 85974 Liu_et_al-2018-Global_Change_Biology.pdf application/pdf ce07e54ef634892e6a10f8bd37d59af3 MD5 1516810 2018-12-13 07:16:48 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15634/1/Liu_et_al-2018-Global_Change_Biology.pdf 15634 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

Liu_et_al-2018-Global_Change_Biology.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85974 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85974 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/85974 archive 353 disk0/00/01/56/34 2018-12-13 07:24:37 2021-08-27 17:31:10 2018-12-13 07:24:37 article show Liu B. Martre P. Ewert F. Porter J.R. Challinor A.J. Müller C. Ruane A.C. Waha K. Thorburn P.J. Aggarwal P.K. Ahmed M. Balkovic J. 1977 0000-0003-2955-4931 Basso B. Biernath C. Bindi M. Cammarano D. De Sanctis G. Dumont B. Espadafor M. Eyshi Rezaei E. Ferrise R. Garcia‐Vila M. Gayler S. Gao Y. Horan H. Hoogenboom G. Izaurralde R.C. Jones C.D. Kassie B.T. Kersebaum K.C. Klein C. Koehler A.‐K. Maiorano A. Minoli S. Montesino San Martin M. Kumar S.N. Nendel C. O'Leary G.J. Palosuo T. Priesack E. Ripoche D. Rötter R.P. Semenov M.A. Stöckle C. Streck T. Supit I. Tao F. Van der Velde M. Wallach D. Wang E. Webber H. Wolf J. Xiao L. Zhang Z. Zhao Z. Zhu Y. Asseng S. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming pub prog_esm 1.5°C warming; Climate change; Extreme low yields; Food security; Model-ensemble; Wheat production Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5°C and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 °C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 °C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer -India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production are therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. 2019-04 published Wiley-Blackwell 10.1111/gcb.14542 23 public Global Change Biology 25 4 1428-1444 TRUE 1365-2486 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article