Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria

15647 12 86028 2 243968 document 86028 Hochrainer-Stigler2018_Article_LargeScaleExtremeRiskAssessmen.pdf application/pdf 4049e49e160c96e7d717f522481c73b4 MD5 1277257 2018-12-19 10:42:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15647/1/Hochrainer-Stigler2018_Article_LargeScaleExtremeRiskAssessmen.pdf 15647 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Hochrainer-Stigler2018_Article_LargeScaleExtremeRiskAssessmen.pdf

published 86029 1 243976 document 86029 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm d92fb4dbdf4fa4cf67b7705059856356 MD5 12851 2018-12-19 10:53:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15647/2/indexcodes.txt 15647 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86028 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86028 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86028 archive 353 disk0/00/01/56/47 2018-12-19 10:45:20 2025-03-26 05:00:16 2018-12-19 10:45:20 article show Hochrainer-Stigler S. 7958 0000-0002-9929-8171 Balkovic J. 1977 0000-0003-2955-4931 Silm K. Timonina-Farkas A. Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria pub prog_esm prog_risk Droughts pose a significant challenge to farmers, insurers as well as governments around the world and the situation is expected to worsen in the future due to climate change. We present a large scale drought risk assessment approach that can be used for current and future risk management purposes. Our suggested methodology is a combination of a large scale agricultural computational modelling -, extreme value-, as well as copula approach to upscale local crop yield risks to the national scale. We show that combining regional probabilistic estimates will significantly underestimate losses if the dependencies between regions during drought events are not taken explicitly into account. Among the many ways to use these results it is shown how it enables the assessment of current and future costs of subsidized drought insurance in Austria. 2019-12-19 published Springer 10.1007/s10287-018-0339-4 126 23 public Computational Management Science 16 651-669 TRUE 1619-6988 Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP), project FARM(project number B567169) Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming (IMPACT2C, FP7 282746) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282746/EU//IMPACT2C info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess