Growth patterns in mature desalination technologies and analogies with the energy field

15735 9 86488 3 245361 document 86488 Mayor_desal growth manuscript_REV2_final.pdf application/pdf d1dc430a4235895dbce7aedf0b8f648b MD5 461644 2019-02-05 10:07:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15735/1/Mayor_desal%20growth%20manuscript_REV2_final.pdf 15735 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

Mayor_desal growth manuscript_REV2_final.pdf

accepted 86489 2 245364 document 86489 lightbox.jpg image/png e9749b933404e4439a0dd04538acd749 MD5 31898 2019-02-05 10:18:09 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15735/2/lightbox.jpg 15735 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86488 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86488 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86488 archive 353 disk0/00/01/57/35 2019-02-05 09:48:08 2021-08-27 17:31:24 2019-02-05 09:48:08 article show Mayor Rodriguez B. 2157 Growth patterns in mature desalination technologies and analogies with the energy field pub prog_tnt Desalination deployment; Upscaling; Energy; Trends This article uses logistic growth curves to analyze and compare the historical dynamics in technology deployment and unit upscaling experimented by the three main desalination technologies: multi-effect distillation (MED), multi-flash distillation (MSF) and reverse osmosis (RO). It also explores whether these dynamics follow a number of patterns identified in another well studied technology family with increasing strategic importance for desalination, i.e. energy technologies. The analysis suggests that thermal technologies (MED and MSF) are in an advanced growth phase and approaching saturation, with deployment levels likely to peak before 2050. The logistic fit for RO lacks enough significance to derive meaningful future capacity projections. RO also shows a remarkably high average-to-maximum unit capacity ratio mirroring a modular and more granular nature. Meanwhile, the three technologies are found to meet a series of common patterns in the temporal and spatial sequence of deployment identified in energy technologies. Based on such patterns and technology natures, PV-RO hybrid systems may hold the highest potential to overcome the cost and energy footprint challenges of desalination in the future. This analysis can guide the integration of desalination into modelling frameworks intended to assess future technological scenarios to address water scarcity and sustainable development goals related challenges. 2019-05-01 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.desal.2019.01.029 2926 public Desalination 457 75-84 TRUE 0011-9164 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article