Tracing the climate signal: mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86494 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86494 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86494 86499 2 245381 document 86499 small.jpg image/png 941703132b0a47ffc687d3d94fb3c943 MD5 1988 2019-02-05 12:35:28 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15736/6/small.jpg 15736 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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supplemental 86507 2 245400 document 86507 lightbox.jpg image/png 66d7bbcd9da38afcd5fb34344819c581 MD5 22183 2019-02-06 15:12:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15736/8/lightbox.jpg 15736 8 8 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86506 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86506 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86506 archive 353 disk0/00/01/57/36 2019-02-05 12:26:18 2021-08-27 17:31:24 2019-02-05 12:26:18 article show Christensen T.R. Arora V.K. Gauss M. Höglund-Isaksson L. 1786 0000-0001-7514-3135 Parmentier F.-J.W. Tracing the climate signal: mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase pub prog_air Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions. 2019-01-04 published NPG 10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9 128 public Scientific Reports 9 1 e1146 TRUE 2045-2322 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article