State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

15765 15 86720 6 246578 document 86720 s41467-019-08745-6.pdf application/pdf 3d4910e3330fc4ec09bccd8f05d5b22d MD5 2351673 2019-03-05 09:16:59 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15765/1/s41467-019-08745-6.pdf 15765 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

s41467-019-08745-6.pdf

submitted 86721 2 246361 document 86721 lightbox.jpg image/png 7c4e20d6e96972cd91bb3281eab46df5 MD5 32434 2019-02-26 14:00:25 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15765/2/lightbox.jpg 15765 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86720 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86720 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/86720 archive 353 disk0/00/01/57/65 2019-02-26 13:56:04 2024-09-09 12:43:26 2019-02-26 13:56:04 article show Schewe J. Gosling S. Reyer C. Zhao F. Ciais P. Elliott J. Francois L. Huber V. Lotze H. Seneviratne S. van Vliet M. 8728 Vautard R. Wada Y. 8940 0000-0003-4770-2539 Breuer L. Buchner M. Carozza D. Chang J. Coll M. Deryng D. de Wit A. Eddy T. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Frieler K. Friend A. Gerten D. Gudmundsson L. Hanasaki N. Ito A. Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Kim H. Lawrence P. Morfopoulos C. Mueller C. Schmied H. Orth R. Ostberg S. Pokhrel Y. Pugh T. Sakuri G. Satoh Y. 2080 Schmid E. Stacke T. Steenbeek J. Steinkamp J. Tang Q. Tian H. Tittensor D. Volkholz J. Wang X. Warszawski L. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes pub prog_esm prog_wat Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human Q2 systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought. 2019 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6 350 2601 92 151 268 public Nature Communications FALSE 2041-1723 High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX, FP7 603864) Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming (IMPACT2C, FP7 282746) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603864/EU/High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes/HELIX; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282746/EU//IMPACT2C info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess