Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system

15875 9 87376 2 248268 document 87376 1-s2.0-S2211467X19300392-main.pdf application/pdf c2d6bf1fa2ba1733ee232976b60d8742 MD5 3797144 2019-04-26 07:21:27 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15875/1/1-s2.0-S2211467X19300392-main.pdf 15875 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87376 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87376 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87376 archive 353 disk0/00/01/58/75 2019-04-26 07:25:21 2021-08-27 17:31:41 2019-04-26 07:25:21 article show Kim Y.J. Wilson C. 8428 0000-0001-8164-3566 Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system pub prog_tnt Econometric analysis; Energy technology innovation system; Monte Carlo simulation; Scenario analysis We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost reduction (diffusion). We find that diverse mixes of policy instruments stimulate collaborative innovation activity. We find that both RD&D expenditure and trade imports support knowledge generation and exchange, and that these relationships are largely robust to future uncertainty. Conversely, we find that policy durability and stability are only weakly linked to innovation outcomes, suggesting that adaptive policy responding to rapidly changing innovation environments should play an important part of the EU's energy future. 2019-04 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.esr.2019.04.012 333 public Energy Strategy Reviews 24 279-299 TRUE 2211-467X Metrics, Models and Foresight for Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation (SET-Nav, H2020 691843) Social Influence and Disruptive Low Carbon Innovations (SILCI, H2020 678799) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/691843/EU//SET-Nav; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/678799/EU//SILCI info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess