Key determinants of global land-use projections

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87564 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87564 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87564 archive 353 disk0/00/01/59/07 2019-05-16 06:09:02 2024-09-09 12:43:25 2019-05-16 06:09:02 article show Stehfest E. van Zeist W.-J. Valin H. 1923 0000-0002-0618-773X Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Popp A. Kyle P. Tabeau A. Mason-D’Croz D. Hasegawa T. 8463 Bodirsky B.L. Calvin K. Doelman J.C. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Humpenöder F. Lotze-Campen H. van Meijl H. Wiebe K. Key determinants of global land-use projections pub prog_ene prog_esm Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies. 2019-05-15 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w 316 119 1314 2881 public Nature Communications 10 1 e2166 TRUE 2041-1723 Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the NEXUS of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource-efficient Europe (SIM4NEXUS, H2020 689150) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/689150/EU//SIM4NEXUS info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess