A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

15918 14 87606 3 249196 document 87606 701_4_merged_1552671064.pdf application/pdf 06c6832f5e035307981b905bcbaadf5e MD5 1857569 2019-05-23 08:38:25 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15918/1/701_4_merged_1552671064.pdf 15918 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

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accepted 87607 2 249200 document 87607 lightbox.jpg image/png 79e19a7dc647a689a100d9ca5776cb50 MD5 42647 2019-05-23 08:48:35 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15918/2/lightbox.jpg 15918 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87606 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87606 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87606 archive 353 disk0/00/01/59/18 2019-05-23 06:36:18 2024-09-09 12:48:28 2019-05-23 06:36:18 article show Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Hasegawa T. 8463 Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Bertram C. Bodirsky B. Bosetti V. Callen J. 2122 Després J. Doelman J. Drouet L. Emmerling J. Frank S. 1944 0000-0001-5702-8547 Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Humpenöder F. Koopman J. van Meijl H. Ochi Y. Popp A. Schmitz A. Takahashi K. van Vuuren D. A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation pub prog_ene prog_esm Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices. 2019-05-13 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2 2881 1314 166 250 2609 94 97 119 public Nature Sustainability 2 5 386-396 TRUE 2398-9629 Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642147/EU//CD-LINKS info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess