Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review

15939 11 87710 3 249467 document 87710 1-s2.0-S0959652619317998-main.pdf application/pdf b2b3a4328aaeed22a299265d141bed9a MD5 6679773 2019-06-03 06:10:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15939/1/1-s2.0-S0959652619317998-main.pdf 15939 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87710 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87710 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87710 archive 353 disk0/00/01/59/39 2019-06-03 06:12:04 2021-10-21 05:00:34 2019-06-03 06:12:04 article show Falchetta G. 9187 0000-0003-2607-2195 Gernaat D. Hunt J. 9022 0000-0002-1840-7277 Sterl S. Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review pub prog_ene prog_wat Hydropower; Climate impact; Climate-water-energy nexus; Power supply reliability; Sub-Saharan Africa In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables. 2019-09-10 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.263 3119 2936 public Journal of Cleaner Production 231 1399-1417 TRUE 1879-1786 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article