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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87824 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87824 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/87824 archive 353 disk0/00/01/59/65 2019-06-24 12:19:01 2021-08-27 17:31:53 2019-06-24 12:19:01 article show Harmsen M. Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Hilaire J. van Vuuren D.P. Drouet L. Durand-Lasserve O. Fujimori S. Keramidas K. Klimont Z. 1473 0000-0003-2630-198X Luderer G. Aleluia Reis L. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Sano F. Smith S.J. pub prog_air prog_ene Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes. 2019-06-17 published Springer 10.1007/s10584-019-02436-3 97 159 250 public Climatic Change TRUE 1573-1480 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article