The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

15999 12 88013 2 250764 document 88013 1-s2.0-S0959378018307489-main.pdf application/pdf 0acde2d427ef64a2222649fdf3470814 MD5 1842235 2019-07-22 06:32:47 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15999/1/1-s2.0-S0959378018307489-main.pdf 15999 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 88014 2 250771 document 88014 lightbox.jpg image/png cbe85736f0be0c4e12973ff845d435b6 MD5 48545 2019-07-22 06:42:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15999/2/lightbox.jpg 15999 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88013 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88013 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88013 archive 353 disk0/00/01/59/99 2019-07-22 06:34:19 2021-08-27 17:31:57 2019-07-22 06:34:19 article show Fitton N. Alexander P. Arnell N. Bajzelj B. Calvin K. Doelman J. Gerber J.S. Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Hasegawa T. Herrero M. Krisztin T. 2088 0000-0002-9241-8628 van Meijl H. Powell T. Sands R. Stehfest E. West P.C. Smith P. The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity pub prog_esm Land use; Food security; Water availability; Shared socio-economic pathways Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity. 2019-09 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944 119 167 public Global Environmental Change 58 e101944 TRUE 1872-9495 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article