Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods

16011 10 88081 3 251408 document 88081 1-s2.0-S2212420918314274-main.pdf application/pdf 1f7e75e8cbf83159a85e58559974ddca MD5 1999622 2019-07-29 05:38:55 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16011/1/1-s2.0-S2212420918314274-main.pdf 16011 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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accepted 88088 1 251428 document 88088 indexcodes.txt text/plain a7bbfaa7c4fcc774a29308df77d9585d MD5 16898 2019-07-29 05:48:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16011/2/indexcodes.txt 16011 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88081 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88081 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88081 archive 353 disk0/00/01/60/11 2019-07-29 05:40:58 2021-08-27 17:31:59 2019-07-29 05:40:58 article show Bischiniotis K. van den Hurk B. Coughlan de Perez E. Veldkamp T. 9011 Nobre G. Aerts J. Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods pub prog_wat Early warning early action system; Relative economic value; Forecast-based financing; Flood risk; Decision-making Forecast-based actions are increasingly receiving attention in flood risk management. However, uncertainties and constraints in forecast skill highlight the need to carefully assess the costs and benefits of the actions in relation to the limitations of the forecast information. Forecast skill decreases with increasing lead time, and therefore, an inherent trade-off between timely and effective decisions and accurate information exists. In our paper, we present a methodology to assess the potential added value of early warning early action systems (EWEAS), and we explore the decision-makers’ dilemma between acting upon limited-quality forecast information and taking less effective actions. The assessment is carried out for one- and a two-stage action systems, in which a first action that is based on a lower skill and longer lead time forecast may be followed up by a second action that is based on a short-term, higher-confidence forecast. Through an idealized case study, we demonstrate that a) that the optimal lead time to trigger action is a function of the forecast quality, the local geographic conditions and the operational characteristics of the forecast-based actions and b) even low-certainty, long lead time forecasts can become valuable when paired with short-term, higher quality ones in a two-stage action approach. 2019-11 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252 2895 public International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 40 e101252 TRUE 2212-4209 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article