Mapping the effects of drought on child stunting

16028 13 88171 4 251637 document 88171 1905228116.full.pdf application/pdf 702291c52d168b6f4c9b0074344f08d5 MD5 2522830 2019-08-13 05:36:25 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16028/1/1905228116.full.pdf 16028 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88171 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88171 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88171 archive 353 disk0/00/01/60/28 2019-08-13 05:40:02 2025-03-26 05:00:17 2019-08-13 05:40:02 article show Cooper M.W. Brown M.E. Hochrainer-Stigler S. 7958 0000-0002-9929-8171 Pflug G. 1361 0000-0001-8215-3550 McCallum I. 1731 0000-0002-5812-9988 Fritz S. 8130 0000-0003-0420-8549 Silva J. Zvoleff A. Mapping the effects of drought on child stunting pub prog_esm prog_risk child stunting; undernutrition; drought; vulnerability mapping As climate change continues, it is expected to have increasingly adverse impacts on child nutrition outcomes, and these impacts will be moderated by a variety of governmental, economic, infrastructural, and environmental factors. To date, attempts to map the vulnerability of food systems to climate change and drought have focused on mapping these factors but have not incorporated observations of historic climate shocks and nutrition outcomes. We significantly improve on these approaches by using over 580,000 observations of children from 53 countries to examine how precipitation extremes since 1990 have affected nutrition outcomes. We show that precipitation extremes and drought in particular are associated with worse child nutrition. We further show that the effects of drought on child undernutrition are mitigated or amplified by a variety of factors that affect both the adaptive capacity and sensitivity of local food systems with respect to shocks. Finally, we estimate a model drawing on historical observations of drought, geographic conditions, and nutrition outcomes to make a global map of where child stunting would be expected to increase under drought based on current conditions. As climate change makes drought more commonplace and more severe, these results will aid policymakers by highlighting which areas are most vulnerable as well as which factors contribute the most to creating resilient food systems. 2019-08-12 published National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.1905228116 126 229 202 98 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences e201905228 TRUE 1091-6490 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article