Measuring, modeling, and managing systemic risk: the missing aspect of human agency

16055 13 88281 2 252040 document 88281 Measuring modeling and managing systemic risk the missing aspect of human agency.pdf application/pdf 3cb088a1b37bcda50c92e4dcaa0bb38b MD5 1482881 2019-09-05 09:22:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16055/1/Measuring%20modeling%20and%20managing%20systemic%20risk%20the%20missing%20aspect%20of%20human%20agency.pdf 16055 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Measuring modeling and managing systemic risk the missing aspect of human agency.pdf

published 88282 2 252045 document 88282 lightbox.jpg image/png 44345e46ba747d84d08e08d0c83a128c MD5 30762 2019-09-05 09:23:28 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16055/2/lightbox.jpg 16055 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88281 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88281 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88281 archive 2 disk0/00/01/60/55 2019-09-05 09:23:19 2025-03-26 05:00:17 2019-09-05 09:23:19 article show Hochrainer-Stigler S. 7958 0000-0002-9929-8171 Colon C. 8883 0000-0002-4132-4648 Boza G. 98319 0000-0001-6453-8254 Brännström Å. 8085 Linnerooth-Bayer J. 1354 Pflug G. 1361 0000-0001-8215-3550 Poledna S. 2083 Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 Dieckmann U. 1668 0000-0001-7089-0393 Measuring, modeling, and managing systemic risk: the missing aspect of human agency pub prog_asa prog_eep prog_risk Systemic risk; human agency; measuring systemic risk; managing systemic risk; modelling systemic risk It is problematic to treat systemic risk as a merely technical problem that can be solved by natural-science methods and through biological and ecological analogies. There appears to be a discrepancy between understanding systemic risk from a natural-science perspective and the unresolved challenges that arise when humans with their initiatives and interactions are included in systemic-risk considerations. It is therefore necessary to investigate possible fundamental differences and similarities of systemic risk with and without accounting for human involvement. Focusing on applied and implementation aspects of measuring, modeling, and managing systemic risks, we identify three important and distinct features characterizing such fundamental differences: indetermination, indecision, and responsibility. We contend that, first, including human initiatives and interactions in systemic-risk considerations must emphasize a type of variability that is especially relevant in this context, namely the role of free will as a fundamental source of essential indetermination in human agency. Second, we postulate that collective indecision generated by mutual uncertainty often leads to the suspension or alteration of rules, procedures, scripts, and norms. Consequently, the associated systemic risks cannot be incorporated into explanatory models, as the new causal rules cannot be predicted and accounted for. Third, analogies from biology and ecology, especially the idea of ‘contagion,’ downplay human agency, and therefore human responsibility, promoting the false belief that systemic risk is a merely technical problem. For each of these three features, we provide recommendations for future directions and suggest how measuring, modeling, and managing approaches from the natural-science domain can best be applied in light of human agency. 2019-09-05 10.1080/13669877.2019.1646312 126 2861 37 39 182 229 235 260 66 public Journal of Risk Research 1-17 TRUE 1366-9877 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article