A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

16075 11 88415 3 253091 document 88415 DeconstructingParisLTTG_Revision3_Nature_2018-02-02525C_for_prepub_distri.pdf application/pdf ff62fc16ed7e2fa7e1f867a7fc461587 MD5 2752262 2019-09-27 07:55:40 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16075/1/DeconstructingParisLTTG_Revision3_Nature_2018-02-02525C_for_prepub_distri.pdf 16075 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

DeconstructingParisLTTG_Revision3_Nature_2018-02-02525C_for_prepub_distri.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88415 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88415 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88415 archive 353 disk0/00/01/60/75 2019-09-19 08:54:12 2021-08-27 17:32:07 2019-09-19 08:54:12 article show Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Huppmann D. 2107 0000-0002-7729-7389 Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Clarke L. Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Nicholls Z. Meinshausen Malte A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal pub prog_ene To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices. 2019-09-19 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1541-4.epdf?shared_access_token=Z83uh5l1V1jHJYC6VV_t19RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OwCRYxts7TNuEDLxSJK54mz1o0piqDYbHTIVdPdsOMJxEK_cbHFIerHyXGtPGFEqTA6Usz1_nKkNf9Xdqs83HgaFSwGsBtgwTv18xp66eHVw%3D%3D 254 130 166 250 103 public Nature 573 7774 357-363 TRUE 1758-678X http://dare.iiasa.ac.at/48/ data FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article