Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity

16133 13 88667 3 254124 document 88667 Andrijevic_et_al_2019.pdf application/pdf 16bee48d49491ab1b22f33b352ffc665 MD5 1036364 2019-10-31 12:56:40 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16133/1/Andrijevic_et_al_2019.pdf 16133 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

Andrijevic_et_al_2019.pdf

accepted 88668 2 254134 document 88668 lightbox.jpg image/png 920c31ff8c9efff3b9a9cd78e962cc79 MD5 40079 2019-10-31 13:06:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16133/2/lightbox.jpg 16133 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88667 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88667 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88667 archive 353 disk0/00/01/61/33 2019-10-28 16:00:53 2024-09-09 12:48:26 2019-10-28 16:00:53 article show Andrijevic M. Crespo Cuaresma J. 1838 Muttarak R. 1959 0000-0003-0627-4451 Schleussner C.-F. Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity pub prog_pop Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits, including countries’ abilities to respond to pressing global challenges such as climate change. However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of its importance, quantifications of future pathways of governance are still lacking. This study provides projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We find that under a ‘rocky road’ scenario, 30% of the global population would still live in countries characterized by weak governance in 2050, while under a ‘green road’ scenario, weak governance would be almost entirely overcome over the same time frame. On the basis of pathways for governance, we estimate the adaptive capacity of countries to climate change. Limits to adaptive capacity exist even under optimistic pathways beyond mid-century. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for governance in assessments of climate change impacts. 2020-01 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0 58 213 public Nature Sustainability 3 35-41 TRUE 2398-9629 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article