On the sources of instability of the Mitra model for years of life at old-age

16179 10 88894 3 255736 document 88894 MitraModel_sources of instability.pdf application/pdf 506196433b63aa5f1f436f8347ee73d6 MD5 209886 2019-11-22 09:51:12 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16179/1/MitraModel_sources%20of%20instability.pdf 16179 1 1 application/pdf text en public

MitraModel_sources of instability.pdf

accepted 88895 2 255739 document 88895 lightbox.jpg image/png f1e6094ed837b881c4c2b215bbc6dbe1 MD5 49013 2019-11-22 09:51:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16179/2/lightbox.jpg 16179 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88894 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88894 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88894 archive 353 disk0/00/01/61/79 2019-11-20 07:18:24 2021-08-27 17:32:24 2019-11-20 07:18:24 article show 1 Ediev D. 2019 0000-0001-7503-5142 On the sources of instability of the Mitra model for years of life at old-age pub prog_pop life expectancy, age exaggeration, Mitra model, open age interval, life table, old-age mortality We explore sources of this instability of the Mitra [“Estimating the Expectation of Life at Older Ages.” Population Studies 38 (2):313–9] model for estimating the remaining life expectancy at old age by revisiting Mitra’s own derivation and keeping the terms of higher order necessary for our inquiry. Dropping the higher-order terms and errors in estimates of the mean population age appear to lead to only small errors of up to three percent of the true remaining life expectancy. The growth parameter’s inadequate estimates, however, lead to large estimation errors and are the source of the outliers of the model. Our results confirm that Mitra model’s biases are typically on the side of overestimating the life expectancy. This provides formal support for an earlier method [Ediev, Dalkhat M. 2018. “Expectation of Life at Old Age: Revisiting Horiuchi-Coale and Reconciling with Mitra.” Genus 74 (1)] based on combining the Mitra and the classical life table models. Based on the performed analysis, we also propose several alternative models of estimating the life expectancy at old age in stable and non-stable population contexts. Our iterative method of estimating the expectation of life at old age does not rely on approximate relations assumed in Mitra and other traditional models and performs as good as the Mitra model overall, yet, being free from outliers and skewedness of estimation errors characterizing the Mitra model. 2019-11-05 published Taylor & Francis 10.1080/23737484.2019.1682485 76 public Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications 86-96 TRUE 2373-7484 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article