Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country

16199 10 88968 2 255965 document 88968 forests-10-01095.pdf application/pdf 3663f538dc644546933c4cf36e6231e4 MD5 2076746 2019-12-03 08:16:37 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16199/1/forests-10-01095.pdf 16199 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

forests-10-01095.pdf

published 88969 2 255973 document 88969 lightbox.jpg image/png d3a20b9823b6bd3bfcc5cba72230f630 MD5 47572 2019-12-03 08:26:42 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16199/2/lightbox.jpg 16199 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88968 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88968 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/88968 archive 353 disk0/00/01/61/99 2019-12-03 08:23:04 2021-08-27 17:32:26 2019-12-03 08:23:04 article show 1 Pirker J. 2031 Mosnier A. 1894 Nana T. Dees M. Momo A. Muys B. Kraxner F. 7904 Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country pub prog_esm REDD+; Cameroon; reference level; deforestation; agriculture; forest baseline Research Highlights: A transparent approach to developing a forest reference emissions level (FREL) adjusted to future local developments in Southern Cameroon is demonstrated. Background and Objectives: Countries with low historical deforestation can adjust their forest reference (emission) level (FREL/FRL) upwards for REDD+ to account for likely future developments. Many countries, however, find it difficult to establish a credible adjusted reference level. This article demonstrates the establishment of a FREL for southern Cameroon adjusted to societal megatrends of strong population—and economic growth combined with rapid urbanization. It demonstrates what can be done with available information and data, but most importantly outlines pathways to further improve the quality of future FREL/FRL’s in light of possibly accessing performance-based payments. Materials and Methods: The virtual FREL encompasses three main elements: Remotely sensed activity data; emission factors derived from the national forest inventory; and the adjustment of the reference level using a land use model of the agriculture sector. Sensitivity analysis is performed on all three elements using Monte Carlo methods. Results: Deforestation during the virtual reference period 2000–2015 is dominated by non-industrial agriculture (comprising both smallholders and local elites) and increases over time. The land use model projections are consistent with this trend, resulting in emissions that are on average 47% higher during the virtual performance period 2020–2030 than during the reference period 2000–2015. Monte Carlo analysis points to the adjustment term as the main driver of uncertainty in the FREL calculation. Conclusions: The available data is suitable for constructing a FREL for periodic reporting to the UNFCCC. Enhanced coherence of input data notably for activity data and adjustment is needed to apply for a performance-based payment scheme. Expanding the accounting framework to include forest degradation and forest gain are further priorities requiring future research. 2019 published MDPI 10.3390/f10121095 234 212 165 public Forests 10 12 e1095 TRUE 1999-4907 http://dare.iiasa.ac.at/56/ data RESTORE+ FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article