Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

16228 10 89271 3 256814 document 89271 Tokarska_et_al_author_copy_embargo.pdf application/pdf 7362ae2b78cfa17475820128d917ddcf MD5 1330423 2020-01-13 10:36:57 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16228/1/Tokarska_et_al_author_copy_embargo.pdf 16228 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

Tokarska_et_al_author_copy_embargo.pdf

accepted 89272 2 256817 document 89272 lightbox.jpg image/png ff8d8c7b36ad1957aa44774a9335695d MD5 46790 2020-01-13 10:47:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16228/2/lightbox.jpg 16228 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89271 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89271 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89271 archive 353 disk0/00/01/62/28 2019-12-19 07:30:51 2024-09-09 12:45:58 2019-12-19 07:30:51 article show Tokarska K.B. Schleussner C.-F. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Stolpe M.B. Matthews H.D. Pfleiderer P. Gillett N.P. Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy pub prog_ene Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these larger estimates may be the different temperature metrics used to estimate the observed global mean warming for the historical period, as they affect the size of the remaining carbon budget. Here we explain the reasons behind these remaining carbon budget increases, and discuss how methodological choices of the global mean temperature metric and the reference period influence estimates of the remaining carbon budget. We argue that the choice of the temperature metric should depend on the domain of application. For scientific estimates of total or remaining carbon budgets, globally averaged surface air temperature estimates should be used consistently for the past and the future. However, when used to inform the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal, a temperature metric consistent with the science that was underlying and directly informed the Paris Agreement should be applied. The resulting remaining carbon budgets should be calculated using the appropriate metric or adjusted to reflect these differences among temperature metrics. Transparency and understanding of the implications of such choices are crucial to providing useful information that can bridge the science–policy gap. 2019-11-28 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41561-019-0493-5 254 public Nature Geoscience 12 12 964-971 TRUE 1752-0908 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article