Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: A multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts

16265 10 89295 2 256856 document 89295 Schinko_2020_Environ._Res._Commun._2_015002.pdf application/pdf 681ef7cbca1b91ba3dc62fd8fa7b33ed MD5 1459798 2020-01-14 15:13:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16265/1/Schinko_2020_Environ._Res._Commun._2_015002.pdf 16265 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Schinko_2020_Environ._Res._Commun._2_015002.pdf

published 89296 1 256864 document 89296 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 29bd0e179cc9839648c1869b25c57b6b MD5 13282 2020-01-14 15:23:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16265/2/indexcodes.txt 16265 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89295 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89295 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89295 archive 353 disk0/00/01/62/65 2020-01-14 15:18:49 2021-08-27 17:32:34 2020-01-14 15:18:49 article show Schinko T. 8847 0000-0003-1156-7574 Drouet L. Vrontisi Z. Hof A.F. Hinkel J. Mochizuki J. 2027 0000-0003-1000-4251 Bosetti V. Fragkiadakis K. Van Vuuren D. Lincke D. Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: A multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts pub prog_risk This article presents a multi-model assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the respective economy-wide implications of adaptation measures for two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration targets, namely the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)2.6 and RCP4.5, and subsequent temperature increases. We combine our analysis, focusing on the global level, as well as on individual G20 countries, with the corresponding stylized RCP mitigation efforts in order to understand the implications of interactions across mitigation, adaptation and sea level rise on a macroeconomic level. Our global results indicate that until the middle of this century, differences in macroeconomic impacts between the two climatic scenarios are small, but increase substantially towards the end of the century. Moreover, direct economic impacts can be partially absorbed by substitution effects in production processes and via international trade effects until 2050. By 2100 however, we find that this dynamic no longer holds and economy-wide effects become even larger than direct impacts. The disturbances of mitigation efforts to the overall economy may in some regions and for some scenarios lead to a counterintuitive result, namely to GDP losses that are higher in RCP26 than in RCP45, despite higher direct coastal damages in the latter scenario. Within the G20, our results indicate that China, India and Canada will experience the highest macroeconomic impacts, in line with the respective direct climatic impacts, with the two first large economies undertaking the highest mitigation efforts in a cost-efficient global climate action. A sensitivity analysis of varying socioeconomic assumptions highlights the role of climate-resilient development as a crucial complement to mitigation and adaptation efforts. 2020-01 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/2515-7620/ab6368 272 209 public Environmental Research Communications 2 1 e015002 TRUE 2515-7620 Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147) CO-designing the Assessment of Climate CHange costs (COACCH, H2020 776479) Green growth and win-win strategies for sustainable climate action (GREEN-WIN, H2020 642018) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642147/EU//CD-LINKS; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776479/EU//COACCH; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642018/EU//GREEN-WIN info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess