Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios

16280 9 89380 2 257148 document 89380 rstb.2019.0189.pdf application/pdf d93f8e7fa9781702fa8352ef8e238e03 MD5 1083194 2020-01-29 06:39:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16280/1/rstb.2019.0189.pdf 16280 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

rstb.2019.0189.pdf

published 89381 2 257154 document 89381 lightbox.jpg image/png d3fe685a5ddc5bf90ab31ce304b527ad MD5 51766 2020-01-29 06:49:37 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16280/2/lightbox.jpg 16280 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89380 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89380 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89380 archive 353 disk0/00/01/62/80 2020-01-29 06:41:08 2021-08-27 17:32:36 2020-01-29 06:41:08 article show Molotoks A. Henry R. Stehfest E. Doelman J. Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Krisztin T. 2088 0000-0002-9241-8628 Alexander P. Dawson T.P. Smith P. Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios pub prog_esm biodiversity; carbon storage; integrated models; land-use change Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by the model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritize future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'. 2020-01-27 published Royal Society of London 10.1098/rstb.2019.0189 119 167 public Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 375 1794 e20190189 TRUE 1471-2970 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article