Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China

16284 9 89398 2 257192 document 89398 1-s2.0-S2405880720300029-main.pdf application/pdf c6305ddb001a59a15fbecf25a2a8ea4b MD5 2017978 2020-02-03 06:37:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16284/1/1-s2.0-S2405880720300029-main.pdf 16284 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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published 89401 2 257212 document 89401 lightbox.jpg image/png 3a65f75ff99abc9e1163e21aac1c61fb MD5 53388 2020-02-03 06:47:19 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16284/2/lightbox.jpg 16284 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89398 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89398 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89398 archive 353 disk0/00/01/62/84 2020-02-03 06:39:32 2025-08-05 14:50:07 2020-02-03 06:39:32 article show Tian Z. Xu H. Sun L. 1681 Fan D. Fischer G. 276 Zhong H. Zhang P. Pope E. Kent C. Wu W. Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China pub prog_wat prog_ysp Agriculture climate service; Cross-scale model coupling; Climate change; Maize production; Food security; China The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is a major maize cropping region in China, which accounts for about 30% of national maize production. Although the regional maize production has an increasing trend in the last decades, it has greater inter-annual fluctuation. The fluctuation is caused by the increased variations of the local temperature and precipitation given the dominance of rainfed maize in the region. To secure high and stable level of maize production in the NFR under the warmer and drier future climate conditions, we employed a cross-scale model-coupling approach to identify the suitable maize cultivars and planting adaptation measures. Our simulation results show that, with proper adaptations of maize cultivars and adjustments of planting/harvest dates, both maize planting area and yield per unit of land will increase in most regions of NFR. This finding indicates that proactive adaptation can help local farmers to reap the benefits of increasing heat resource brought in by global warming, thus avoiding maize production losses as reported in other studies. This research can potentially contribute to the development of agricultural climate services to support climate-smart decisions for agricultural adaptations at the plot, farm and regional scales, in terms of planning the planting structure of multiple crops, breeding suitable maize varieties, and optimizing planting and field management schedules. 2020-04 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100150 302 89 public Climate Services 18 e100150 TRUE 2405-8807 GAEZ FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article