Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

16287 8 89416 2 257228 document 89416 van_Ginkel_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_023001.pdf application/pdf 425eff584569936ce8f4a02a4a3b0a37 MD5 1063300 2020-02-03 07:36:17 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16287/1/van_Ginkel_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_023001.pdf 16287 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

van_Ginkel_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_023001.pdf

published 89417 2 257234 document 89417 lightbox.jpg image/png 67af9059251a02ec7ea705ebda91dcb8 MD5 9982 2020-02-03 07:46:23 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16287/2/lightbox.jpg 16287 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89416 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89416 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89416 archive 353 disk0/00/01/62/87 2020-02-03 07:38:48 2021-08-27 17:32:36 2020-02-03 07:38:48 article show van Ginkel K.C.H. Botzen W.J.W. Haasnoot M. Bachner G. Steininger K.W. Hinkel J. Watkiss P. Boere E. 2082 Jeuken A. de Murieta E.S. Bosello F. Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research pub prog_esm Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states. 2020-01-30 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395 34 public Environmental Research Letters 15 2 e023001 TRUE 1748-9326 CO-designing the Assessment of Climate CHange costs (COACCH, H2020 776479) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776479/EU//COACCH info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess