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Grubler2020_Article_TechnologicalAndSocietalChange.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89452 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89452 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89452 archive 353 disk0/00/01/62/93 2020-02-14 06:41:18 2021-08-27 17:32:37 2020-02-14 06:41:18 article show Grubler A. 1115 0000-0002-7814-4990 pub prog_tnt History and scenarios of material use; Disruptive innovations; Digitalization; Sharing economy The traditional narrative of continued economic growth driven by development aspirations towards material-intensive lifestyles and associated ever larger extraction and use of resources is contrasted with an alternative perspective. This alternative may lead to much lower growth, even to a “de-growth” of biogenic, energetic, and mineral resources. Disruptive innovations, above all digitalization, combined with changing consumer preferences and lifestyles as well as public policies to address climate change could challenge traditional business models and forms of service provision. Examples of such disruptive innovations in the domains of digital convergence and the sharing economy are given with their potential implications on resource use. Two contrasting scenarios, quantified to 2050, illustrate the wide divergence of potential developments in resource extraction and use over the coming decades. 2020-02-13 published Springer 10.1007/s00501-020-00960-9 112 public BHM Berg- und Hüttenmännische Monatshefte 165 199-204 TRUE 0005-8912 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article