Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in

16340 7 89718 2 257954 document 89718 Wang_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_024007.pdf application/pdf 054f6aa8215ec4b6d5d2159400a73d92 MD5 1933092 2020-03-09 07:29:58 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16340/1/Wang_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_024007.pdf 16340 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Wang_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_024007.pdf

published 89719 1 257961 document 89719 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 38689f917911cd5e5da5ec324ce10b6a MD5 9923 2020-03-09 07:33:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16340/2/indexcodes.txt 16340 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89718 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89718 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89718 archive 353 disk0/00/01/63/40 2020-03-09 07:31:43 2021-08-27 17:32:43 2020-03-09 07:31:43 article show Wang H. Chen W. Bertram C. Malik A. Kriegler E. Luderer G. Després J. Jiang K. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in pub prog_ene Emission reduction from the coal-dominated power sector is vital for achieving China's carbon mitigation targets. Although the coal expansion has been slowed down due to the cancellation of and delay in new construction, coal-based power was responsible for over one third of China's energy-related CO2 emissions by 2018. Moreover, with a technical lifetime of over 30 years, current investment in coal-based power could hinder CO2 mitigation until 2050. Therefore, it is important to examine whether the current coal-based power planning aligns with the long-term climate targets. This paper introduces China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and an ambitious carbon budget along with global pathways well-below 2 degrees that are divided into five integrated assessment models, which are two national and three global models. We compare the models' results with bottom-up data on current capacity additions and expansion plans to examine if the NDC targets are in line with 2-degree pathways. The key findings are: 1. NDC goals alone are unlikely to lead to significant reductions in coal-based power generation. On the contrary, more plants may be built before 2030; 2. this would require an average of 187–261 TWh of annual coal-based power capacity reduction between 2030 and 2050 to achieve a 2 °C compatible trajectory, which would lead to the stranding of large-scale coal-based power plants; 3. if the reduction in coal power can be brought forward to 2020, the average annual coal-based power reduction required would be 104–155 TWh from 2020 to 2050 and the emissions could peak earlier; 4. early regulations in coal-based power would require accelerated promotion of alternatives between 2020 and 2030, with nuclear, wind and solar power expected to be the most promising alternatives. By presenting the stranding risk and viability of alternatives, we suggest that both the government and enterprises should remain cautious about making new investment in coal-based power sector. 2020-01-28 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5d99 166 public Environmental Research Letters 15 2 e024007 TRUE 1748-9326 Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642147/EU//CD-LINKS info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess