A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

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supplemental 89767 2 258100 document 89767 lightbox.jpg image/png 9b6a0f3e119b526be57464fa837bb134 MD5 19576 2020-03-16 19:24:11 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16344/8/lightbox.jpg 16344 8 8 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89766 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89766 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/89766 archive 2 disk0/00/01/63/44 2020-03-16 19:11:49 2021-08-27 17:32:44 2020-03-16 19:11:49 article show Jägermeyr J. Robock A. Elliott J. Müller C. Xia L. Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Schmid E. Liu W. Zabel F. Rabin S.S. Puma M.J. Heslin A.C. Franke J. Foster I. Asseng S. Bardeen C.G. Toon O.B. Rosenzweig C. A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security prog_esm food production shock; multiple breadbasket failure; food trade network; cold temperature yield response; global gridded crop model intercomparison (GGCMI) A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history. 2020-03-16 National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.1919049117 151 92 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences TRUE 1091-6490 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article