Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90076 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90076 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90076 archive 2 disk0/00/01/64/27 2020-04-21 06:36:17 2025-08-13 05:00:18 2020-04-21 06:36:17 article show 1 Pereira H.M. Rosa I.M.D. Martins I.S. Kim H. Leadley P. Popp A. van Vuuren D.P. Hurtt G. Anthoni P. Arneth A. Baisero D. Chaplin-Kramer R. Chini L. Di Fulvio F. 8861 0000-0002-7317-6360 Di Marco M. Ferrier S. Fujimori S. Guerra C.A. Harfoot M. Harwood T.D. Hasegawa T. 8463 Haverd V. Havlik Petr 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Hellweg S. Hilbers J.P. Hill S.L.L. Hirata A. Hoskins A.J. Humpenöder F. Janse J.H. Jetz W. Johnson J.A. Krause A. Leclere D. 2000 0000-0002-8658-1509 Matsui T. Meijer J.R. Merow C. Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Ohashi H. Poulter B. Purvis A. Quesada B. Rondinini C. Schipper A.M. Settele J. Sharp R. Stehfest E. Strassburg B.N.B. Takahashi K. Talluto M.V. Thuiller W. Titeux N. Visconti P. 2230 0000-0001-6823-2826 Ware C. Wolf F Alkemade R. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050 pub prog_esm Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity. 2020 10.1101/2020.04.14.031716 65 1314 119 174 219 3114 public bioRxiv (Preprint) FALSE Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article