Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90125 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90125 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90125 archive 2 disk0/00/01/64/36 2020-04-29 10:24:01 2024-09-09 12:43:22 2020-04-29 10:24:01 article show Roelfsema M. van Soest H.L. Hamsen M. den Elzen M. Höhne N. Iacubuta G. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Kriegler E. Luderer G. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Ueckerdt F. Després J. Drouet L. Emmerling J. Frank S. 1944 0000-0001-5702-8547 Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Humpenöder F. Huppmann D. 2107 0000-0002-7729-7389 Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Fragkiadakis K. Gi K. Keramidas K. Köberle A.C. Reis L.A. Rochedo P. Schaeffer R. Oshiro K. Vrontisi Z. Chen W. Iyer G.C. Edmonds J. Kannavou M. Jiang K. Mathur R. Safonov G. Vishwanathan S.S. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement pub prog_ene prog_esm Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries. 2020-04-29 Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6 166 250 94 97 103 130 2881 public Nature Communications 11 e2096 TRUE 2041-1723 Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147) Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) Climate Policy Assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate National and Global Transition Pathways (COMMIT, EuropeAid 21020701) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642147/EU//CD-LINKS; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess