Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90254 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90254 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90254 archive 2 disk0/00/01/64/60 2020-05-07 13:55:48 2024-09-09 12:43:22 2020-05-07 13:55:48 article show Byers E.A. 2115 0000-0003-0349-5742 Coxon G. Freer J. Hall J.W. Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain pub prog_ene Climate-change impacts; Energy supply and demand; Hydrology; Water resources The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts. 2020-05-07 Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2 2585 public Nature Communications 11 1 e2239 TRUE 2041-1723 https://dare.iiasa.ac.at/55/ data FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article