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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90267 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90267 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90267 archive 2 disk0/00/01/64/61 2020-05-07 18:49:46 2021-08-27 17:32:59 2020-05-07 18:49:46 article show Cristino C.T. Żebrowski P. 2086 0000-0001-5283-8049 Wildemeersch M. 2075 0000-0002-6660-2712 pub prog_asa Economic recessions occur with varying duration and intensity and may entail substantial losses in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and investment spending. In this work, we propose a statistical model for the time intervals between recessions that accounts for the state of the economy and the impact of market adjustments and regulatory changes. The model uses a generalized renewal process based on the Gumbel distribution (GuGRP) in which times between consecutive events are conditionally independent. We also present a novel goodness of fit test tailored to the GuGRP that validates the use of the statistical model for the analysis of recessions. Analyzing recessions in the U.S. and Europe, we demonstrate that the statistical model characterizes well recession inter-arrival times and that the model performs better than simpler, commonly used distributions. In addition, the presented statistical model enables us to compare the adjustment processes in different economies and to forecast the occurrence of future recessions. 2020-05 published Public Library of Science (PLoS) 10.1371/journal.pone.0232615 343 331 public PLoS ONE 15 5 e0232615 TRUE 1932-6203 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article