Estimation of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses Caused by a Flood With Long‐Lasting Inundation: Application to the 2011 Thailand Flood

16499 9 90481 2 261949 document 90481 Manuscript_TanoueWRR_v5.pdf application/pdf 068c60c3ff92cc0ec56b3440004de45c MD5 1414489 2020-06-05 07:34:07 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16499/1/Manuscript_TanoueWRR_v5.pdf 16499 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

Manuscript_TanoueWRR_v5.pdf

accepted 90482 2 261951 document 90482 lightbox.jpg image/png a7c51186193f3e24332c57652b7775e4 MD5 15006 2020-06-05 07:34:40 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16499/2/lightbox.jpg 16499 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90481 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90481 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90481 archive 353 disk0/00/01/64/99 2020-06-04 07:40:27 2021-08-27 17:33:06 2020-06-04 07:40:27 article show Tanoue M. Taguchi R. Nakata S. Watanabe S. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Hirabayashi Y. Estimation of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses Caused by a Flood With Long‐Lasting Inundation: Application to the 2011 Thailand Flood pub prog_ene computable general equilibrium model; direct/indirect economic losses; Flood; global river and inundation modelThailand River floods are common natural disasters that cause serious economic damage worldwide. In addition to direct economic damage, such as the destruction of physical assets, floods with long‐lasting inundation cause direct and indirect economic losses within and outside the affected area. Direct economic losses include loss of opportunity, due to interruption of business activities, and the costs associated with emergency measures such as cleaning, while indirect economic losses affect sectors within the trade and supply network. Few studies have explicitly estimated direct and indirect economic losses in several sectors, due to the difficulty of modeling inundation depth and period at finer scales. Here we developed a global modeling framework to estimate the direct and indirect economic losses associated with floods using a computable general equilibrium model and a global river and inundation model, which can simulate the flood extent, depth, and period. Application of the method to the 2011 Thailand flood demonstrated that the estimated economic losses due to business interruption in the industry and service sectors totaled $14.7 billion, which was about two thirds of the estimated direct economic damage caused by the flood ($22.0 billion). The estimated indirect economic losses reduced the gross domestic product of Thailand by 4.81% in 2011, without considering transboundary effects, and will cause more than 0.5% reduction in gross domestic product even in 2030, resulting in $55.3 billion of total losses from 2011 to 2030. Comprehensive estimation of direct and indirect economic losses facilitates understanding of various types of flood‐related economic risks during and after a flood. 2020-05-01 published American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2019WR026092 2881 public Water Resources Research 56 5 e2019WR026092 TRUE 00431397 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article