The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90572 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90572 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/90572 archive 353 disk0/00/01/65/18 2020-06-18 16:25:04 2025-03-12 05:00:17 2020-06-18 16:25:04 article show Zilli M. Scarabello M. Soterroni A. 8559 Valin H. 1923 0000-0002-0618-773X Mosnier A. 1894 Leclere D. 2000 0000-0002-8658-1509 Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Kraxner F. 7904 Lopes M. 9191 Ramos F. The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture pub prog_esm GLOBIOM-Brazil; Land-use competition; Change in production; Soybean; Corn; Sugar cane Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes. 2020-06-08 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384 2842 316 212 174 119 165 3123 public Science of the Total Environment 740 e139384 TRUE 1879-1026 RESTORE+ GLOBIOM GLOBIOM-BRAZIL FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article