Short-term solar and wind variability in long-term energy system models

16611 7 91022 2 263636 document 91022 1-s2.0-S0360544220314845-main.pdf application/pdf d5168ea179a48b2c072d7bc241dff4f4 MD5 2878418 2020-08-03 06:45:53 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16611/1/1-s2.0-S0360544220314845-main.pdf 16611 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 91033 1 263652 document 91033 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ df27e1352056e4a08b5601bbe35ef9da MD5 15231 2020-08-03 06:55:26 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16611/2/indexcodes.txt 16611 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91022 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91022 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91022 archive 353 disk0/00/01/66/11 2020-08-03 06:48:17 2021-08-27 17:33:21 2020-08-03 06:48:17 article show Ringkjob H.-K. 9156 Haugan P.M. Seljom P. Lind A. Wagner F. 1789 0000-0003-3429-2374 Mesfun S. 8904 0000-0002-4909-6643 Short-term solar and wind variability in long-term energy system models - A European case study pub prog_air prog_esm prog_ysp Energy modelling; Stochastic modelling; TIMES energy-Models; Variable renewable energy Integration of variable renewables such as solar and wind has grown at an unprecedented pace in Europe over the past two decades. As the share of solar and wind rises, it becomes increasingly important for long-term energy system models to adequately represent their short-term variability. This paper uses a long-term TIMES model of the European power and district heat sectors towards 2050 to explore how stochastic modelling of short-term solar and wind variability as well as different temporal resolutions influence the model performance. Using a stochastic model with 48 time-slices as benchmark, the results show that deterministic models with low temporal resolution give a 15–20% underestimation of annual costs, an overestimation of the contribution of variable renewables (13–15% of total electricity generation) and a lack of system flexibility. The results of the deterministic models converge towards the stochastic solution when the temporal resolution is increased, but even with 2016 time-slices, the need for flexibility is underestimated. In addition, the deterministic model with 2016 time-slices takes 30 times longer to solve than the stochastic model with 48 time-slices. Based on these findings, a stochastic approach is recommended for long-term studies of energy systems with large shares of variable renewable energy sources. 2020-10-15 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118377 3073 321 2889 public Energy 209 e118377 TRUE 1873-6785 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article