16614 9 91050 2 263685 document 91050 s41599-020-00553-4.pdf application/pdf e3eb8a49afffda0209f6f329f019f4a3 MD5 351290 2020-08-04 08:00:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16614/1/s41599-020-00553-4.pdf 16614 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 91051 1 263693 document 91051 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 29111201575aa5115831b5c9ff642a0b MD5 8229 2020-08-04 08:10:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16614/2/indexcodes.txt 16614 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91050 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91050 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91050 91055 2 263697 document 91055 small.jpg image/png 1a5770d06ef76293dbcd69382a1cddaf MD5 1385 2020-08-04 08:11:15 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16614/6/small.jpg 16614 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91050 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91050 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91050 archive 353 disk0/00/01/66/14 2020-08-04 08:02:21 2021-08-27 17:33:22 2020-08-04 08:02:21 article show Eker S. 2173 0000-0003-2264-132X pub prog_ene COVID-19 Mathematical models have become central to the public and policy debate about the recent COVID-19 pandemic. On the one hand, they provide guidance to policy-makers about the development of the epidemic and healthcare demand overtime; on the other hand, they are heavily criticized for their lack of credibility. This commentary reflects on three such models from a validity and usefulness perspective. Specifically, it discusses the complexity, validation, and communication of models informing the government decisions in the UK, US and Austria, and concludes that, although these models are useful in many ways, they currently lack a thorough validation and a clear communication of their uncertainties. Therefore, prediction claims of these models should be taken cautiously, and their merits on scenario analysis should be the basis for decision-making. The lessons that can be learned from the COVID models in terms of the communication of uncertainties and assumptions can guide the use of quantitative models in other policy-making areas. 2020-08-03 published NPG 10.1057/s41599-020-00553-4 2953 public Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 7 1 TRUE 2662-9992 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article